UK Pushes Saudi Arabia to Join £60 Billion Tempest Fighter Jet Programme: What It Means for British Aerospace Manufacturing

The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is the most significant UK aerospace manufacturing project since Eurofighter Typhoon. With an estimated cost of $76 billion (roughly £60 billion), this sixth-generation fighter jet programme brings together the UK, Japan, and Italy. The goal: build the world’s most advanced combat aircraft by 2035.

Now, as Prince William prepares for a landmark visit to Saudi Arabia from 9 to 11 February 2026 for the World Defence Show in Riyadh, Britain is pushing hard to bring the Kingdom into the fold. For UK aerospace manufacturing firms and their supply chains, the stakes could not be higher.

Understanding GCAP: Scale and Significance for UK Defence Manufacturing

The Global Combat Air Programme launched in December 2022. It merges the UK-led Tempest project with Japan’s F-X programme. The aim is to develop a stealth fighter with sixth-generation technologies. These include artificial intelligence, directed-energy weapons, autonomous drone teaming, and an augmented reality cockpit.

The GCAP Tempest fighter jet will replace the Royal Air Force’s Eurofighter Typhoons and Japan’s Mitsubishi F-2 fighters from 2035. Italy’s Leonardo is the third industrial partner, working alongside BAE Systems and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

Current programme statistics show the scale of this UK defence supply chain effort:

• Around 9,000 people working on GCAP globally
• Over 600 suppliers based in the UK alone
• PwC forecasts 20,000 UK jobs annually from 2026 to 2050
• The UK Government has committed £12 billion over ten years
• Italy has allocated €18.6 billion for development phases
• Japan has budgeted ¥700 billion (over £3.3 billion) for fiscal years 2023 to 2027

In June 2025, the joint venture was officially named Edgewing. This marked a major milestone in industrial coordination. The organisation is based in the UK alongside the GCAP International Government Organisation (GIGO).

Why Saudi Arabia Matters for UK Aerospace Manufacturing

Saudi Arabia’s potential role in GCAP goes beyond spreading costs. The Kingdom offers strategic value, industrial ambition, and purchasing power. Together, these could reshape the programme’s economics and long-term success.

Financial Firepower

Saudi Arabia ranks among the world’s top five defence spenders. Military spending makes up about 9% of GDP. Under Vision 2030, the Kingdom aims to localise 50% of defence manufacturing UK firms currently dominate by the decade’s end. In 2018, localisation stood at just 4%. By late 2023, it had reached 19.35%.

The General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) has driven rapid growth:

• Licensed defence facilities grew from 5 in 2019 to 296 by Q3 2024
• Over 53 industrial cooperation deals signed, worth about 35 billion riyals (£7.5 billion)
• Around 13 billion riyals (£2.8 billion) in orders placed with local companies

This represents a serious industrial partner with both capital and intent to invest in aerospace programmes.

A 60-Year Partnership: BAE Systems Saudi Arabia

The UK-Saudi defence relationship runs deep. BAE Systems Saudi Arabia, the UK’s prime contractor on GCAP, is marking 60 years of partnership with the Kingdom at this month’s World Defence Show. The company employs 7,000 people across 11 Saudi locations. Notably, 80% are Saudi nationals.

The Al-Yamamah arms deals, starting in 1985, were Britain’s largest defence export programme. They were worth an estimated £43 billion. More recently, the UK supplied 72 Eurofighter Typhoons under the Al-Salam contract. Since 2015, BAE Systems has earned over £29 billion from the Saudi Ministry of Defence.

This relationship provides trust, established supply chains, and proven capability transfer. All of these could speed up Saudi integration into GCAP.

The Strategic Calculus for UK Defence Supply Chain

Spreading the Development Burden

For British manufacturers, Saudi involvement could ease financial concerns. The GCAP development contract was expected by end of 2025. It remains unsigned as of early 2026. Reports suggest UK funding is tangled with the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) review. This has caused friction with Japanese and Italian partners.

Saudi money could give the UK breathing room. It would help manage competing defence priorities while keeping the programme on track. Current workshare stands at roughly 40% each for the UK and Japan, with 20% for Italy. Saudi involvement would reshape this split, potentially cutting per-unit costs for everyone. This matters for UK sovereign aerospace manufacturing and defence supply chains.

Supply Chain Opportunities

The UK aerospace and defence sector employs 443,000 people directly. It supports over 1,500 member companies through the ADS trade association. More than 1,000 of these are SMEs. For these manufacturers, the sixth-generation fighter jet programme offers decades of high-value work.

Saudi involvement could expand opportunities in several ways:

Technology transfer and localisation: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 rules would drive demand for UK firms to set up facilities or joint ventures in the Kingdom. This mirrors BAE Systems’ model through its Kingdom Partner Companies.

Extended production runs: Saudi Arabia will likely buy dozens of GCAP Tempest fighter jet airframes. Longer production runs cut unit costs and sustain jobs across the UK defence supply chain.

Maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO): A Saudi GCAP fleet would need decades of support. This creates ongoing revenue for UK suppliers with the right capabilities.

The SME Dimension

For small and medium-sized UK aerospace manufacturing firms, GCAP is critical. The Eurofighter Typhoon programme supported 40,000 UK jobs across 400 suppliers. GCAP’s advanced tech demands could need even more specialised input from innovative smaller firms.

Saudi involvement could speed up this opportunity. But it also adds complexity. SMEs would need to handle extra export controls and potentially unfamiliar business practices. Preparing now—understanding Saudi offset rules and partnership structures—could help agile suppliers capture real value.

Navigating Partner Concerns

Saudi involvement is not without issues. Japan has been cautious about expanding the partnership. Tokyo worries about technology transfer, timeline risks, and political factors. Japan’s need to replace its F-2 fleet by 2035 leaves little room for delays.

Italy has been more open. Italian officials argue that Saudi financial strength could reinforce the programme. Leonardo has already signed GCAP R&D contracts worth €100 million.

British officials say discussions continue. Options range from full partner status to phased involvement or industrial workshare deals. Defence Secretary John Healey stated in late January 2026 that he remained “absolutely determined that the momentum of the programme is maintained.”

For UK aerospace manufacturing firms, this complexity means staying agile. Programme structures and export opportunities could shift as talks progress. The situation echoes other recent trade relationship changes affecting UK manufacturers.

Practical Steps for UK Defence Manufacturing Leaders

Immediate Actions

Review export control readiness: Saudi involvement adds licensing complexity. Manufacturers should check that compliance systems can handle multi-country requirements. Key staff need appropriate security clearances.

Assess joint venture appetite: Saudi localisation rules mean significant work must happen in-Kingdom. Manufacturers should weigh whether joint ventures or Saudi facilities fit their strategy.

Engage with Team Tempest: BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo UK, and MBDA UK form the core industrial group. SMEs seeking supply chain spots should connect with these prime contractors. Understanding the technical needs from the concept phase is essential.

Medium-Term Positioning

Invest in skills: The UK aerospace sector currently supports 26,200 apprenticeships. Manufacturers expecting GCAP involvement should plan workforce development now. The 2035 in-service date requires advanced skills.

Strengthen cyber security: GCAP’s digital architecture and AI integration will demand exceptional cyber standards. Supply chain firms should prepare for requirements beyond current certifications.

Build Saudi relationships: World Defence Show 2026 hosts 925 exhibitors from 80 countries. UK manufacturers can use this to build Saudi partnerships and understand Kingdom requirements firsthand.

The Bigger Picture: UK Aerospace Manufacturing Strategy

GCAP sits at the crossroads of industrial strategy, national security, and diplomacy. The Ministry of Defence calls the programme “militarily crucial” for maintaining the UK as a first-tier aerospace power.

The Saudi question highlights broader tensions in defence industrial policy. Expanding partnerships can cut costs and boost exports. But it may also dilute technology advantages and complicate decisions. The “best athlete” approach to workshare will be tested as more partners with their own ambitions join.

For manufacturing leaders, the message is clear: GCAP defines UK combat aerospace for the next 50 years. Whether Saudi Arabia joins as a full partner or a major customer, the Kingdom’s role will shape opportunities across the UK defence supply chain.

Looking Ahead for UK Aerospace Manufacturing

Prince William’s Saudi visit marks a diplomatic moment. But the real work happens in boardrooms, engineering centres, and factory floors. Coming months will show whether GCAP partners can resolve contract issues, settle Saudi participation, and maintain the 2035 target.

For UK aerospace manufacturing firms, the message is straightforward. This is not a programme to watch from the sidelines. Whether through the fighter platform, the autonomous loyal wingmen drones, or the broader Future Combat Air System, opportunities exist across all levels.

The mix of British engineering, Japanese precision, Italian design, and potentially Saudi investment creates a unique programme. Manufacturers who position themselves now will shape not just their futures, but UK aerospace for generations.